What's the difference between causation and correlation?

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Neil D
 
Reply Mon 22 Jun, 2009 06:18 pm
@kennethamy,
kennethamy;70942 wrote:

You think it is "subjective" that beheading will cause death? That means you only think it will. You really don't know that it will? I wonder why?


Ok, I feel that i know for a fact that beheading will cause physical death. It may be the best example so far for establishing cause and effect. I just dont know(at least not now anyways) how to prove that it is true cause and effect and test it against mere correlation to establish the difference.

Maybe you know how to do this?
 
kennethamy
 
Reply Mon 22 Jun, 2009 08:07 pm
@Neil D,
Neil;71231 wrote:
Ok, I feel that i know for a fact that beheading will cause physical death. It may be the best example so far for establishing cause and effect. I just dont know(at least not now anyways) how to prove that it is true cause and effect and test it against mere correlation to establish the difference.

Maybe you know how to do this?


I think that any physiologist could easily explain why death is caused when the head is separated from the body. Don't you. I think that even without the help of a physiologist a layman can make a good guess at the explanation. By the way, I don't know why you think it is a better example of cause and effect than in freezing water by lowering its temperature to freezing point. Although it is more dramatic.
 
Ultracrepidarian
 
Reply Mon 22 Jun, 2009 08:43 pm
@Neil D,
No, I'm still confused, nevertheless I appreciate the painstaking efforts.

You wrote two paragraphs.

I agree with the content of the first one. If I had to pick something to argue about (and I do), then I'd disagree with usage of words like "pure" and "perfect". When we consider nicely shaped triangles in the course of learning trigonometry, we don't dwell on the molecular crooks and crannies. Our conceptions or calculations are either perfect or imperfect? Or that real triangles are different from imagined triangles in some philosophically important way? Mathematics is about measuring and measuring is about being precise or imprecise. I think the science of math can handle rounding numbers off and I don't find significant digits particularly challenging philosophically.

It is the second paragraph that I find interesting.

Zetetic11235;71229 wrote:
Now, the concept of the frog that we have is not necessarily complete, because the concept of the frog can only approximate the reality of the frog. This seems to be an inversion of the logic applied above; but it is in fact not. When we try to take a triangle, a geometric object, and try to make one out of some material, we are in fact, doing the reverse of what we do when we take a real object, say a frog, and try to make a purely logical/linguistic representation or mental ideal out of it. Our definition can only approximate what a frog really is. This is why a description can be interpreted different ways by different people, it is an approximation and we fill in the details with our past experience.


I do not understand. That is not completely true; I understand that you are comparing the abstraction of an idea of frogs with the concretization of a triangle from an idea of triangles. I'll agree that the two processes are different, but it doesn't convince me there is a difference between the logicical possibilities of either triangles or frogs morphing into a Chevron-with-Techron commerecial.

It gets silly(-ier) after this, so feel free to skip to the bottom.

Consider the cup of coffee and the donut. I can make a donut, a geometric object, out of an idea of the donut shape and the proper materials. I can also form linguistic representations from cups of coffee, which are real objects. Or I can do the reverse. I can make a cup of coffee, which has it's own unique geometry, out of some clay and beans and form ideas about donuts while I dunk them in aforementioned geometry.

I don't think I can make a frog. Maybe a puppet of a frog.
 
Neil D
 
Reply Tue 23 Jun, 2009 12:22 pm
@kennethamy,
kennethamy;71256 wrote:
I think that any physiologist could easily explain why death is caused when the head is separated from the body. Don't you..


Ok. Lets assume the physiologist can give us the "exact cause" of death in the beheading. Lets call it X2, and call the "questionable cause" X1(event 1), followed by Y(event 2).

So:

X1 = event 1
X2 = An exact circumstance within X1 that can be determined as the cause of Y.
Y = event 2

Y must follow X1 contigously in time and space.
Y must always follow X1
Y must follow X1 more than once or it may be just a coincidence(unless X2 exists)

Now:

for any X1 and Y we first see if X2 can be determined.
if not, we call it a correlation, otherwise its cause and effect.

Does this work for you?
 
kennethamy
 
Reply Tue 23 Jun, 2009 12:27 pm
@Neil D,
Neil;71421 wrote:
Ok. Lets assume the physiologist can give us the "exact cause" of death in the beheading. Lets call it X2, and call the "questionable cause" X1(event 1), followed by Y(event 2).

So:

X1 = event 1
X2 = An exact circumstance within X1 that can be determined as the cause of Y.
Y = event 2

Y must follow X1 contigously in time and space.
Y must always follow X1
Y must follow X1 more than once or it may be just a coincidence(unless X2 exists)

Now:

for any X1 and Y we first see if X2 can be determined.
if not, we call it a correlation, otherwise its cause and effect.

Does this work for you?


No, since no where do you mention an explanation which shows why the correlation is not accidental. It is necessary to trace the chain physiological events which occur when the head leaves the body.
 
Zetetic11235
 
Reply Tue 23 Jun, 2009 02:17 pm
@Ultracrepidarian,
Ultracrepidarian;71271 wrote:
No, I'm still confused, nevertheless I appreciate the painstaking efforts.

You wrote two paragraphs.

I agree with the content of the first one. If I had to pick something to argue about (and I do), then I'd disagree with usage of words like "pure" and "perfect". When we consider nicely shaped triangles in the course of learning trigonometry, we don't dwell on the molecular crooks and crannies. Our conceptions or calculations are either perfect or imperfect? Or that real triangles are different from imagined triangles in some philosophically important way? Mathematics is about measuring and measuring is about being precise or imprecise. I think the science of math can handle rounding numbers off and I don't find significant digits particularly challenging philosophically.


What about the development of axiomatic set theory or the arguments for intuitionism? Math really has little to do with measurement, that is a popular misconception among those who haven't gone past pre-calculus. Math deals with logical structures that are made manifest by their definitions. For example: This link will give you the definition of a group Group -- from Wolfram MathWorld There are many logical extension such as rings, and fields. An example of a field is the set Q of rational numbers(every single possible fraction of whole numbers so any N/M where N and M are whole numbers). The definition of the field is based on the operations that can be performed on its elements(in this case, the fractions).


Ultracrepidarian;71271 wrote:
I do not understand. That is not completely true; I understand that you are comparing the abstraction of an idea of frogs with the concretization of a triangle from an idea of triangles. I'll agree that the two processes are different, but it doesn't convince me there is a difference between the logicical possibilities of either triangles or frogs morphing into a Chevron-with-Techron commerecial.

It gets silly(-ier) after this, so feel free to skip to the bottom.

Consider the cup of coffee and the donut. I can make a donut, a geometric object, out of an idea of the donut shape and the proper materials. I can also form linguistic representations from cups of coffee, which are real objects. Or I can do the reverse. I can make a cup of coffee, which has it's own unique geometry, out of some clay and beans and form ideas about donuts while I dunk them in aforementioned geometry.

I don't think I can make a frog. Maybe a puppet of a frog.


I don't know what your definition of the geometric donut is, but you certainly could not a make a true torus(here is the definition Torus -- from Wolfram MathWorld) because there are gaps between all of its constituent particles so there would be more than one hole in your donut(albiet the other holes would be very small).

In theory, I suppose the particles that make up the frog could be rearranged into such a way that you would have another particle based object. Maybe if you want to consider M-theory(superstring theory) true beyond a shadow of a doubt, you could maybe even alter the frog totally into the consitutent particles(change a proton into a photon:), I guess by changing the closed string to an open string) of the Chevron commercial. Though there might be a few leftover particles(or it might only form part of the data for the commercial). You could have the frog turn into a dvd of the commercial in theory at least.
 
memester
 
Reply Tue 23 Jun, 2009 02:32 pm
@Zetetic11235,
Zetetic11235;71229 wrote:

So you see, our definition of a frog in no way determines what a frog could do, but rather, what a frog does, determines our definition of it. Get it?
I think so. A lev frogitates ?



YouTube - levitating frog
 
Neil D
 
Reply Tue 23 Jun, 2009 04:20 pm
@kennethamy,
kennethamy;71423 wrote:
No, since no where do you mention an explanation which shows why the correlation is not accidental. It is necessary to trace the chain physiological events which occur when the head leaves the body.


Accidental or coincidental?

Well:
Y must follow X1 more than once or it may be just a coincidence(unless X2 exists)

Assuming X2 doesnt exist and Y follows X1 only once then it could be coincidence. More than once and it would be correlation. Wouldnt it?

Also we agreed that the physiologist could give us X2. So we could establish cause and effect couldnt we?

The best we could do to obtain X2 is to consult an expert in the appropriate field, if needed, and X2 would only be as reliable as the expert, or our own knowledge.

Im looking at this in a general way, and not just as it relates to the beheading example.
 
Ultracrepidarian
 
Reply Tue 23 Jun, 2009 08:03 pm
@Neil D,
"Math really has little to do with measurement, that is a popular misconception among those who haven't gone past pre-calculus."

I confess, I am under that misconception.

"I don't know what your definition of the geometric donut is, but you certainly could not a make a true torus(here is the definition Torus -- from Wolfram MathWorld) because there are gaps between all of its constituent particles so there would be more than one hole in your donut(albiet the other holes would be very small)."

Of course not! I'd never make a true torus! I'd make a false torus. Who am I kidding? I'd buy a dozen false tori at the bakery. Anyway, was your point to say that I can't make something in pure, perfect, true shapes and therefore when I ask, "Can a triangle turn into a Russian nuclear submarine?", the answer is in the negative because true triangles are just syntax in our minds. On the other hand, a Russian nuclear spaceship can turn into many frogs according to super string theory and there is really no telling what a deeper understanding of super string theory will allow us to do?

But that's wonderful! I'm excited. But is it fair to suppose that turning a Russian nuclear submarine into many frogs will require the use of heavy machinery? No, don't answer that. Who knows? Is it accurate to say that our prospects of turning submarines into frogs are virtually nil so long as our understanding of super string theory and its possible applications remain at its present state? I don't know. Maybe you think this technology might be a reality any day now. Me, I don't think it is possible for at least another 10 or 15 years.

As for true triangles, you're probably right. You seem to know a lot about mathematics whereas as I am still under the misconception that math has a great deal to do with measuring things. I suppose we know that true triangles may never turn into hippopotamuses because true triangles are, like you say, really just syntax, and obey our definitions. And false triangles may turn into hippopotamuses if the wind or super string hits them just right, so to speak.

Toasters might turn into frogs, blenders on the liquefy setting might produce giraffes and frogs might be turned into gasoline commercials provided super string theory holds up. But is it possible that we might be able to turn Russian nuclear submarines into many frogs (or chipmunks) by 2020?

---------- Post added at 09:07 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:03 PM ----------

Shoot! You don't suppose its possible the military already has this technology, do you?
 
cypressmoon
 
Reply Tue 23 Jun, 2009 08:36 pm
@Satan phil,
If I were to say, "a Russian Nuclear Submarine is a frog", in the context of this discussion, I'm wondering if this is a true statement or a false statement.

How is a submarine different than a frog? Where do we draw the distinction? At what scale? With what criteria? What sort of grounds would justify a distinction between a submarine and a frog? This is not a joke. I think someone needs to ask these questions, and I've got some time to burn.
 
Satan phil
 
Reply Tue 23 Jun, 2009 11:31 pm
@cypressmoon,
cypressmoon;71586 wrote:
If I were to say, "a Russian Nuclear Submarine is a frog", in the context of this discussion, I'm wondering if this is a true statement or a false statement.

How is a submarine different than a frog? Where do we draw the distinction? At what scale? With what criteria? What sort of grounds would justify a distinction between a submarine and a frog? This is not a joke. I think someone needs to ask these questions, and I've got some time to burn.


You can do very different things with them. Two rocks on the other hand have mainly the same applications. Except that some rocks will make sparks so they are different than rocks that don't make sparks and so on...
 
cypressmoon
 
Reply Wed 24 Jun, 2009 12:31 am
@Satan phil,
Satan;71626 wrote:
You can do very different things with them...


Exactly. Categorical distinction is a convention, meaning it is made for practical purposes. Would the practices of cultures throughout history and pre-history influence how they design their categories and their languages? Is philosophy - an essentially impractical field - cursed by the convention of language? Is philosophy merely attempting to revise language use?
 
Zetetic11235
 
Reply Wed 24 Jun, 2009 12:50 am
@cypressmoon,
You could also call them organizationally different, coming from a (very speculative) physical perspective. The matter is arranged in a different way resulting in different observable patterns on the macro level.
 
Satan phil
 
Reply Wed 24 Jun, 2009 07:18 am
@cypressmoon,
cypressmoon;71631 wrote:
Exactly. Categorical distinction is a convention, meaning it is made for practical purposes. Would the practices of cultures throughout history and pre-history influence how they design their categories and their languages? Is philosophy - an essentially impractical field - cursed by the convention of language? Is philosophy merely attempting to revise language use?


Well, arguing over what a frog "is", is pointless. If I say "bring me a frog" and you bring me a baseball then I'll say "no that's not a frog, that's a baseball, that's a frog". There's no real sense in which I was right and you were wrong, however. We could call frogs "polliwogs" and it wouldn't matter. Either we communicate successfully or we don't. As long as what I want to do gets accomplished, it's successful and that's what matters. If I can grunt and point at the salt so you hand it to me, that's the same as saying "please pass the salt", other than manners.
 
kennethamy
 
Reply Wed 24 Jun, 2009 06:50 pm
@Satan phil,
Satan;71700 wrote:
Well, arguing over what a frog "is", is pointless. If I say "bring me a frog" and you bring me a baseball then I'll say "no that's not a frog, that's a baseball, that's a frog". There's no real sense in which I was right and you were wrong, however. We could call frogs "polliwogs" and it wouldn't matter. Either we communicate successfully or we don't. As long as what I want to do gets accomplished, it's successful and that's what matters. If I can grunt and point at the salt so you hand it to me, that's the same as saying "please pass the salt", other than manners.


You think there is no difference between a frog and a baseball? Or you think that it doesn't matter what we call the object, "frog" or, "baseball". Both of those views are obviously wrong.
 
Satan phil
 
Reply Wed 24 Jun, 2009 08:25 pm
@kennethamy,
kennethamy;71929 wrote:
You think there is no difference between a frog and a baseball? Or you think that it doesn't matter what we call the object, "frog" or, "baseball". Both of those views are obviously wrong.


What's in a name? that which we call a rose
By any other name would smell as sweet;
Romeo and Juliet (II, ii, 1-2)


There are other languages besides English and they seem to manage just fine with different words.
 
kennethamy
 
Reply Wed 24 Jun, 2009 08:29 pm
@Satan phil,
Satan;71957 wrote:
What's in a name? that which we call a rose
By any other name would smell as sweet;
Romeo and Juliet (II, ii, 1-2)


There are other languages besides English and they seem to manage just fine with different words.


Yes. So? What Juliet is saying is just that. It doesn't matter what word you use. Call a rose "a stinkweed" and it will still have all the properties of a rose. So you agree with Juliet; right? But, it still matters if you classify a rose with stinkweeds, doesn't it? Roses don't stink. Just as if you classify a whale as a fish you are wrong. Whales are mammals. Saying that if you call a rose a "stinkweed" you do not change any properties which make it a rose is true. But, saying that if you classify a rose with stinkweeds that's a mistake, is also true. Roses are not stinkweeds. But you know that.
 
Satan phil
 
Reply Wed 24 Jun, 2009 08:42 pm
@kennethamy,
This is what I was responding to:

kennethamy;71929 wrote:
Or you think that it doesn't matter what we call the object, "frog" or, "baseball".


I have just shown this to be the case and you seem to agree. Suddenly you're talking about "classification". Moving goal posts?
 
kennethamy
 
Reply Wed 24 Jun, 2009 09:24 pm
@Satan phil,
Satan;71962 wrote:
This is what I was responding to:



I have just shown this to be the case and you seem to agree. Suddenly you're talking about "classification". Moving goal posts?



As I pointed out, I agree it doesn't matter to the object what you call it. And that is what Juliet is saying. But that doesn't mean that when you call a rose a stinkweed, it is not an error, since a rose is not a stinkweed. And here you are not talking just about the rose and its properties, but its relations to other things in the world, and you have made a mistake when you did that. So there are two things at issue here, not just one. And I have not moved any goal posts. You recognized only one of the goal posts. A rose is a rose (absolutely true, as Gertrude Stein put it). But it is also a pretty and fragrant flower, and it is not a stinkweed. Right?
 
Satan phil
 
Reply Wed 24 Jun, 2009 11:15 pm
@kennethamy,
kennethamy;71969 wrote:
As I pointed out, I agree it doesn't matter to the object what you call it. And that is what Juliet is saying. But that doesn't mean that when you call a rose a stinkweed, it is not an error, since a rose is not a stinkweed. And here you are not talking just about the rose and its properties, but its relations to other things in the world, and you have made a mistake when you did that. So there are two things at issue here, not just one. And I have not moved any goal posts. You recognized only one of the goal posts. A rose is a rose (absolutely true, as Gertrude Stein put it). But it is also a pretty and fragrant flower, and it is not a stinkweed. Right?


What label you apply to it, does not matter, as long as we both know what the other is talking about. Coherence is all that matters.
 
 

 
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