World Population

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validity
 
Reply Wed 19 Nov, 2008 01:04 am
@Khethil,
Khethil wrote:
If you were to ask "What are the options" for forced growth deceleration, I could come up with a bunch! Asking what might the "ethically sound" options be puts another spin.
[INDENT]PRO-REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS: On first blush, I don't think there's any ethical way to curb reproduction. To my way of thinking - on the individual level - reproduction is very-nearly a "right" of person-hood. To forcibly limit or prohibit reproduction strikes me as wrong, on a fundamental level. The Ends we're Trying to Attain would have to be indisputable, quantifiable and of sufficient force to actually revoke one's right to what they do with their body.
[/INDENT][INDENT]PRO-POPULATION CONTROL: If the human race - and our planet by association - are in *that* much trouble - *that* much dire risk - forcibly curbing reproduction could theoretically be justified. If forced to choose, I'd opt for limiting the number of offspring one could have rather than prohibiting en-masse. But once again, how might this be done? Do we imprison folks? Start executions? Forced abortions? Yes, I could forsee a situation where this might be necessary, but I find the position very hard - even playing devil's advocate - to successfully work through.
[/INDENT]Perhaps there are others out there whose sense of single-answer is greater than mine. This is am ethical pandora's-box; one with big teeth that'll bit anyone attempting to go one way or another.

Thanks


Thank you for what I consider a well thought out answer.

An option I was thinking about on the way home today was to make it not impossible for conception to occur, but rather reduce the success rate. This kind of eliminates any ethical issues. I soon realised this just further delays the inevitable over-population scenario.

I tend to agree with the limiting the number of offspring option. I guess I need to look for further examples where this option has been actioned ie China's One Child Policy.
 
nicodemus
 
Reply Wed 19 Nov, 2008 09:36 pm
@validity,
An option I was thinking about on the way home today was to make it not impossible for conception to occur, but rather reduce the success rate. This kind of eliminates any ethical issues. I soon realised this just further delays the inevitable over-population scenario.

If one is to get the federal government in on population control, there are 2 methods that could possibly work

1 a genophage- we have the technology to create viruses that in turn create proteins that can unravel and scramble dna sequences, thus signifigantly eliminating the exponential rate and if one wanted to get super efficient, culling the weak and stupid at the same time.

2 work off of the simple carrot and stick mentality, provide a tax break on families that have no more than 2 children, but provide a tax hike for each successive child after 2, eventually, peoples wallets will start speaking louder than thier hormones
 
Aedes
 
Reply Wed 19 Nov, 2008 09:45 pm
@nicodemus,
nicodemus;34190 wrote:
1 a genophage- we have the technology to create viruses that in turn create proteins that can unravel and scramble dna sequences, thus signifigantly eliminating the exponential rate and if one wanted to get super efficient, culling the weak and stupid at the same time.
Hmmm... I'm pretty familiar with the clinical virology literature, it being my subspecialty, and this sounds awfully fantastical to me. Besides, you don't need technology for a virus to eliminate population grwoth and cull the population -- it will happen with epidemic disease anyway.
 
nicodemus
 
Reply Wed 19 Nov, 2008 09:50 pm
@validity,
what i suggest is a regulated form of it, there is a species of parasite called Wolbachia that has the ability to secrete chemicals and protiens that alter its carriers reproductive dna to the point where the larger part of its haploids are a scrambled mess, what i suggest is a controlled immitation that could perhaps be put into specific water supplies without risking a global plague on our hands
 
nicodemus
 
Reply Wed 19 Nov, 2008 09:51 pm
@validity,
but if i may ask, any objections to the carrot and stick method
 
CarolA
 
Reply Wed 19 Nov, 2008 09:54 pm
@validity,
validity wrote:
Personal decision to reproduce is being finacially encouraged in Australia, which I understand for economic reasons but I do not think this practice is environmentally sustainable. Is personal decision not to reproduce being encouraged in England?


But interestingly one of the reasons we are encouraged to have children in Australia is because the richer countries get the less children they seem to have. Of course this has been a problem (?maybe?) in Australia with lots of space & very few people, but does it perhaps show that by raising the living standards we will simply reduce the population increase?
Unfortunately, religious groups often try to sabotage efforts to introduce birth control into poorer countries; do they really want the alternative of seeing half the world's population starving to death?
 
Dave Allen
 
Reply Thu 20 Nov, 2008 06:06 pm
@validity,
validity wrote:
Personal decision to reproduce is being finacially encouraged in Australia, which I understand for economic reasons but I do not think this practice is environmentally sustainable. Is personal decision not to reproduce being encouraged in England?

Could you please elaborate on the cause of the sharp decrease in number as predicted by James Lovelock.
Personal decision not to reproduce isn't really 'encouraged' I would say - though you do see plenty of newspaper articles on environmental causes. A recent New Scientist article stated simply that avoiding reproduction was the best thing a person could do to ease pressures on the environment. Birth rates are falling here - there is a vague sort of movement to take more care of fewer children I think, though I may just be projecting my own wishes on others here.

James Lovelock, very basically, likens earth to an organism (the Gaia hypotheses). The various forms of life on the planet do not act in concert but mostly balance one another out - like the various microbes that live in a human body.

Occasionally - he theorises - one of these organisms may become very successful. Lovelock likens this to a microbe in your body becoming an infection. He feels that, at the moment, Gaia is suffering from a bad case of humans - like you might suffer from a bad case of flu. The earth is suffering from disseminated primatemaia - a plague of people.

When an organism falls ill there are various options:

* Destruction of host organism (Gaia).
* Chronic infection.
* Destruction of disease organism causing imbalace (Humans).
* Symbiosis - relationship between Host and disease organisms of mutual benefit.

In his great book "Heresies" the thinker John Gray (my favorite contempory philosopher) says:

"The last two can definately be ruled out. Humankind cannot destroy it's planetary host - earth is much older and stronger than humans will ever be. At the same time humans will never initiate a relationship of mutually beneficial symbiosis with it. The advance of Homo rapiens has always gone with the destruction of other species and ecological devestation ... The first is most likely. The present spike in human numbers will not last."

More details here:

Gaia hypothesis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
validity
 
Reply Fri 21 Nov, 2008 02:57 pm
@Dave Allen,
CarolA wrote:
But interestingly one of the reasons we are encouraged to have children in Australia is because the richer countries get the less children they seem to have. Of course this has been a problem (?maybe?) in Australia with lots of space & very few people, but does it perhaps show that by raising the living standards we will simply reduce the population increase?
Unfortunately, religious groups often try to sabotage efforts to introduce birth control into poorer countries; do they really want the alternative of seeing half the world's population starving to death?


You may be correct in the increase living standard/decrease reproduction rate, I have not looked at the statistics. I think the Australian government push to increase the population has many facets, yet in the front of my mind is economics. More tax payers. Australia has 2 problems in world economics, position and population. Its somewhat difficult to change our location.

I never really understood the birth control is a sin bit. Totally senseless to me. The potential to possibly become a child is only that, a potential. I hope I did not offend any of your beliefs.

Dave Allen wrote:
Personal decision not to reproduce isn't really 'encouraged' I would say - though you do see plenty of newspaper articles on environmental causes. A recent New Scientist article stated simply that avoiding reproduction was the best thing a person could do to ease pressures on the environment. Birth rates are falling here - there is a vague sort of movement to take more care of fewer children I think, though I may just be projecting my own wishes on others here.

James Lovelock, very basically, likens earth to an organism (the Gaia hypotheses). The various forms of life on the planet do not act in concert but mostly balance one another out - like the various microbes that live in a human body.

Occasionally - he theorises - one of these organisms may become very successful. Lovelock likens this to a microbe in your body becoming an infection. He feels that, at the moment, Gaia is suffering from a bad case of humans - like you might suffer from a bad case of flu. The earth is suffering from disseminated primatemaia - a plague of people.

When an organism falls ill there are various options:

* Destruction of host organism (Gaia).
* Chronic infection.
* Destruction of disease organism causing imbalace (Humans).
* Symbiosis - relationship between Host and disease organisms of mutual benefit.

In his great book "Heresies" the thinker John Gray (my favorite contempory philosopher) says:

"The last two can definately be ruled out. Humankind cannot destroy it's planetary host - earth is much older and stronger than humans will ever be. At the same time humans will never initiate a relationship of mutually beneficial symbiosis with it. The advance of Homo rapiens has always gone with the destruction of other species and ecological devestation ... The first is most likely. The present spike in human numbers will not last."

More details here:

Gaia hypothesis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Thank you for a detailed response. A lot to take in. I do not expect you to know, but are births rates falling in line with CarolA comment on living standards? Hey if it is your projection, I encourage it.

Gaia's mechansims for treating disseminated primatemaia are familiar, yet I think there is room for our ethical decisions to prevent or minimise the impact of these mechanisms.
 
Aedes
 
Reply Fri 21 Nov, 2008 09:04 pm
@nicodemus,
nicodemus;34200 wrote:
what i suggest is a regulated form of it, there is a species of parasite called Wolbachia...
Wolbachia are quite familiar to those of us in the tropical medicine field. They have a well known endosymbiotic relationship with filarial worms. This is one of the major areas of research in lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis.

I'd like you to account for the fact that killing Wolbachia (with doxycycline) actually sterilizes the worm, preventing the production of microfilariae. This is the direct opposite of the effect you're discussing.

By the way, Wolbachia are not viruses, they're a kind of bacteria that are obligately intracellular, and there is probably no way of "releasing" them into a free environment in which they would survive.
 
Dave Allen
 
Reply Wed 26 Nov, 2008 09:11 pm
@validity,
validity wrote:
Gaia's mechansims for treating disseminated primatemaia are familiar, yet I think there is room for our ethical decisions to prevent or minimise the impact of these mechanisms.
 
CarolA
 
Reply Wed 26 Nov, 2008 09:29 pm
@Dave Allen,
I've just seen an interesting article about this topic at New Scientist;
The population paradox - 19 November 2008 - New Scientist

A bit more food for thought.
 
validity
 
Reply Wed 26 Nov, 2008 10:16 pm
@CarolA,
Dave Allen wrote:
Human beings simply do not seem to care what happens after they die. We show no significant desire to protect our environment - we never have...


When referenced by distant history, true. However there is in terms of recent history an appreciable growth of interest (reflected in regulatory change) in the environment has occured. The U.S. Energy Department believes that wind power could provide one fifth of that nation's power by 2030. Other studies have shown that wind, solar and biofuel energy could create five million US jobs by 2030. EERE: Wind and Hydropower Technologies Program Home Page It would seem there is room for growth in the economic and environmental sectors. Although as you say it may not be a significant desire to protect the enviroment, it is certainly better than none.

Even if the entire human population used 100% renewable energy and an economy that never failed, we would still have to deal with how do we not overpopulate the earth. Do we risk it and leave it up to a social decision or should we start thinking about the most ethcial way to address this now?

Are you satisfied with the point made by UN Population Fund report, as CarolA has linked,

CarolA wrote:
I've just seen an interesting article about this topic at New Scientist;
The population paradox - 19 November 2008 - New Scientist

A bit more food for thought.


The UN Population Fund published a report last week pointing out that population efforts must be "culturally sensitive". This is crucial, as the most effective way to bring down birth rates is to empower people to control their own reproduction, free of coercion from within their society or outside.
For the past eight years, the US has not funded birth control efforts, in order to appease religious extremists. Under a new president, many people hope that will change, and soon. Too much time has been wasted.

Thank you CarolA for this link. What do you think of this comment by the UN?

Can an environmental ethicist make a faith based prolific procreator rethink there religious interpretations?
 
CarolA
 
Reply Thu 27 Nov, 2008 12:53 am
@validity,
I find it very disturbing that the religious extremists have hijacked funding aimed at bettering the lives of many women - but that often seems to be their agenda. UN and other health funding should be based on common sense and providing genuine help, not pushing a particular religious point of view.
 
Dave Allen
 
Reply Sat 29 Nov, 2008 04:40 am
@validity,
validity wrote:
When referenced by distant history, true. However there is in terms of recent history an appreciable growth of interest (reflected in regulatory change) in the environment has occured. The U.S. Energy Department believes that wind power could provide one fifth of that nation's power by 2030. Other studies have shown that wind, solar and biofuel energy could create five million US jobs by 2030. EERE: Wind and Hydropower Technologies Program Home Page It would seem there is room for growth in the economic and environmental sectors. Although as you say it may not be a significant desire to protect the enviroment, it is certainly better than none.
Politicians often pay a great deal of lip service to environmental concerns but rarely follow them through (witness the degree of shortcomings in many countries' attempts to meet the promises they made at Kyoto). Just because the Energy Dept says wind power could provide a degree of power, shows no promise that it will.

I would also say that, whilst wind power is better than fossil fuels - it is not in itself good for the environment. You still need land on which to place these windmills, and where they are placed treees cannot grow, birds cannot nest.

validity wrote:
Even if the entire human population used 100% renewable energy and an economy that never failed, we would still have to deal with how do we not overpopulate the earth. Do we risk it and leave it up to a social decision or should we start thinking about the most ethcial way to address this now?

Are you satisfied with the point made by UN Population Fund report, as CarolA has linked,

The UN Population Fund published a report last week pointing out that population efforts must be "culturally sensitive". This is crucial, as the most effective way to bring down birth rates is to empower people to control their own reproduction, free of coercion from within their society or outside.

For the past eight years, the US has not funded birth control efforts, in order to appease religious extremists. Under a new president, many people hope that will change, and soon. Too much time has been wasted.

I do not see how there can be any hope of a sustainable civilisation unless people as a gestalt accept that rearing one child between a pair is the only sensible family unit for the time being. How to do this without coercion though? Impossible - I suspect.
 
nicodemus
 
Reply Mon 1 Dec, 2008 04:48 pm
@Dave Allen,
once again, through incentive, but the problem with that is,
there is a heirarchy of growth

expansion
preservation
stagnation
extinction

if one does not actively and aggresivly grow, one is caught in the preservation stage, and preservation is a temporary phase, leading either to population explosion or stagnation, which leads to extinction
 
Dave Allen
 
Reply Tue 2 Dec, 2008 10:42 am
@validity,
I don't see how it necessarily follows that stagnation leads to extinction - beyond the fact that (eventually) all species become extinct.

In the short to middle term it would decrease the risk of humans becoming extinct if we did not "actively and aggressively grow" - unless you think the resources needed to fuel such growth are infinite?

We are in a state of population explosion - attempting to reduce our birth rate is the only way to stave off a sudden decrease in numbers.

It strikes me that plenty of other organisms have suffered peaks and troughs in terms of number without facing extinction - why should "preservation" lead to extinction? The celeocanth and tuatara are reckoned to be two of the oldest species currently on the planet - and they have existed on the earth in rather small (stagnant) populations for ages (longer than the primates).
 
Khethil
 
Reply Tue 2 Dec, 2008 02:25 pm
@nicodemus,
nicodemus wrote:
... if one does not actively and aggresivly grow, one is caught in the preservation stage, and preservation is a temporary phase, leading either to population explosion or stagnation, which leads to extinction


I must agree with Dave on this wholeheartedly. Further, it doesn't even follow logically that if a species achieves "preservation" that means anything other than that perpetual preservation. Preservation = Explosion or Stagnation strikes me as a classic "doesn't follow" scenario. Perhaps I misunderstand, please feel free to scream if this is the case.

What's more, aggressive growth is the last thing we need; on any level and with regards to any aspect of physical human existence. I personally believe that aggressive growth (read: population + industrialization) has put us in the fix we're in. None of our resources we've been so rampantly growing with are either infinite or renewable. At some point in time the "well's gonna run dry" - aggressive growth is therefore unsustainable (at least in terms of the resources we've been expending thus far).

Thanks
 
nicodemus
 
Reply Tue 2 Dec, 2008 05:22 pm
@validity,
sorry, i was a little tired and wasnt thinking correctly, doesn't make much sense looking back on it, maybe controlling growth would work, but the only method i can see is fiscal enticement, again, my appologies
 
averroes
 
Reply Tue 2 Dec, 2008 08:22 pm
@validity,
Growth control would be fine if we as humanity were unhindered by the morality issues behind launching population wars, genophages, etc. Really, the only way we can bring down the population with our current morals still standing would be either planetary colonization or simply waiting it out until, with the sheer weight of the demands of the insustainable population, humanity collapses on itself, bringing back a balance.
 
validity
 
Reply Wed 3 Dec, 2008 01:36 am
@averroes,
Dave Allen wrote:
It strikes me that plenty of other organisms have suffered peaks and troughs in terms of number without facing extinction


It does seem a "natural" occurance seen from populations of moulds to "big cats". With human population comes loss of habitat and the increased difficulty of rebounding form these "natural" peaks and troughs. Gee it would seem that you have uncovered another issue of the human population, loss of biodiversity. Environmental ethics, good call.


nicodemus wrote:
if one does not actively and aggresivly grow, one is caught in the preservation stage, and preservation is a temporary phase, leading either to population explosion or stagnation, which leads to extinction


Aggressively is a good term to introduce at this point.

Khethil wrote:
What's more, aggressive growth is the last thing we need; on any level and with regards to any aspect of physical human existence. I personally believe that aggressive growth (read: population + industrialization) has put us in the fix we're in. None of our resources we've been so rampantly growing with are either infinite or renewable. At some point in time the "well's gonna run dry" - aggressive growth is therefore unsustainable (at least in terms of the resources we've been expending thus far).

The average car wastes up to two thirds of its petrol. It would be a great advantage to switch to electric cars that have the electricity stored in their batteries generated by renewables. This would certainly allow us more time to sort this mess out

nicodemus wrote:
sorry, i was a little tired and wasnt thinking correctly, doesn't make much sense looking back on it, maybe controlling growth would work, but the only method i can see is fiscal enticement, again, my appologies


Please contiune to contribute. By pushing the "in an aggressive manner", you have given a new facet to this thread. For this I thank you.

averroes wrote:
Growth control would be fine if we as humanity were unhindered by the morality issues behind launching population wars, genophages, etc. Really, the only way we can bring down the population with our current morals still standing would be either planetary colonization or simply waiting it out until, with the sheer weight of the demands of the insustainable population, humanity collapses on itself, bringing back a balance.


Maybe it is time to do away with the idea of money. Japan was working on a moon base for around 2030, but who can fund such an endeavour on a scale significant enough to reduce the human population? Waiting it out is not what I would like to see. The seemingly discriminatory side of nature is brutally unkind. I am hopeful this truely global problem is resolveable by our intervention.
 
 

 
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