@prothero,
I've been reading up on the compatibalist incompatibalist problems and so far my original naively assumed incompatibalist stance is not all that shaken by the opposing arguments. It seems to be more a matter of definitions than anything else but I will continue to read about it.
If I may, I would like to add another parallel line of discussion to this thread. Well I'm going to whether you like it or not. I just said 'if I may' to be polite.
Nietzsche writes that by affirming a single moment all eternity is redeemed
for the one who affirms. Regardless of the first person plural 'we', the Nietzsche quote is referring to a subjective viewpoint. There is nothing implicit or explicit that suggests that the affirmation of one person redeems other peoples subjective experiences. In fact, if there was, it would be out of character for Nietzsche.
The omniscient demon of Laplace's thought experiment can make the claim of being completely objective. It knows all. It's knowledge is not limited to a single subjective viewpoint.
At first I was focused on the differences and similarities in the types of causality and/or determinism described in the two quotes but I think this difference may be of equal or greater importance. Perhaps this line of discussion, if taken up, will eventually intersect with the first.