Iran: Democracy or death?

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Reply Sun 21 Jun, 2009 12:10 am
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Iran: Democracy or death?


I'm sure most of you have at least heard of the events transpiring in Iran right now, and it looks as if it will be a very turbulent time for Iran? for good or for bad we still do not know.

To be honest, I am not too familiar with the back ground of Iran. This is as far as I know about the country and the situation. Note that most of my information is coming from the fantastic overviews on BBCnews. I tend to trust what they have to say, and I am relying on their information as fact? which is biased? but still, you have to start somewhere. What follows is a summarization of what I have found in my study.

Iran in a nutshell


Iran in a nutshell is populated by 71 million people. Since 1975, the population has doubled in size, making a majority of the population 10-39 years of age. It is in many respects a "young" country. Economy wise, the country suffers from heavy annual inflation, near 25.3%, and unemployment has risen to 24% for the largest age demographic? which is ironically 24 years old, which is nearly half of the population. Oil is a primary product, yet the country is amidst fuel rationing and the country as a whole suffers from severe wealth mismanagement. Iran's health care system is said to be one of the best in the middle east, spending nearly 10% national GDP and life expectancy is relatively high compared to the global average.

The country is ruled by elected and non elected institutions. The president is the second highest official in the country per the Iranian constitution. Constitutionally, the president has much the same power as the president of the United States of America. Interestingly enough, Iranians have stricter terms restrictions than American Politian's have. However, in reality, this power is for the most part impotent because true power rest in the hands of the clerics and the supreme leader. In reality, the president is in control of economic issues, while the clerics hold power over defense, foreign policy, and security. The president can choose his cabinet, and constitutional limitations and privileges apply, however, this power can be overturned by the clerics. Iran has a parliament, which adheres to term limitations and possesses the power to introduce and pass bills and impeach the president and ministers. They do not, however, have authority surpassing those of the clerics. I would at this put draw a sharp line of distinction between the previous and the offices to follow, because what has been previously mentioned are all offices of electorate (voted by the people of Iran).

Supreme power lies in the hands of the supreme leader. Elected by the "assembly of experts," it is the supreme leader who appoints authoritative branches that fall below him? which is everyone else other than the supreme leader. Some of the powers the supreme leader holds electoral power over the judiciary, guardian council, the leadership of the armed forces, and the heads of media? and not to mention total control of the military. Judiciary, appointed by the supreme leader, ensure Sharia law and oversee parliamentary authority judicial. The guardian council consists of a dozen men, half chosen by the judiciary, half from the supreme leader? they are basically the Sharia-law filter for any law passed in the country as well as possessing superseding authority over electorates. So, the Supreme leader is head honcho, the head of judiciary is #2, etc. etc. etc.

What happened and why all the commotion?

BBC timeline says this; 2009 June - Mr Ahmadinejad is declared to have won a resounding victory in 12 June presidential election. The rival candidates challenge the result, alleging vote-rigging. Their supporters take to the streets in protest.

I'd like to hear other people's opinion on this before I put my own two cents in because BBC has a very subtle way of implying multiple reasons for the same thing. Simply, the problems now can be interpreted in multiple ways and I value the different perspectives. Election wise, the evidence for electoral fraud is amazing? breaking all previous precedents in elections held in the country. Long story short, the votes and the data do not line up and the people are starting to ask questions.

Democracy or death.


In my mind, this seems somewhat similar to the onset of the American revolution. The protests in Iran, though not identical to the instances of the American revolution, strike a similar chord. It is essentially a reaction to an infringement of natural rights and rights inherent in the constitution they have understood to represent their interests for many years which now fall short. I wonder if the same thing can be said of Iranians? In an interesting addition, I have recently read that the American revolution was propagated in a large way by the self interests of the American elite. Interestingly enough, the events unfolding now are being propagated by the elite of Iran, the natural aristocracy? the students and educated. So many similarities, so little space.

So what do you think about the whole situation? Any thoughts whatsoever, its great to just have a good discussion about it, both in terms of the nation, what has happened, what is happening, or what may happen in the future.
 
salima
 
Reply Sun 21 Jun, 2009 12:25 am
@VideCorSpoon,
i think we need to look at news sources in other areas-alternet, the christian science monitor (believe it or not!), hindustan times, dawn, al-jazeera, to get a wider perspective. bbc is good-but add to that the guardian, the independent, the washington post. i dont have any thoughts on it yet, but that is where i would start

there are so many countries right now that appear to be exploding or imploding on this side of the world...where to start? where will it end? right now what is happening in pakistan is pretty much beyond belief. what can i say....and add to this the economic crisis which can zoom into the headlines again without warning, we are definitely on the verge of something big.
 
VideCorSpoon
 
Reply Sun 21 Jun, 2009 09:21 am
@salima,
News wise, it's definitely difficult to find a media outlet that does not have some sort of influence this way or another. Some of the issue I have with American media outlets is that there is definitely a great deal of bias and they don't have any scruples about it in the process. The same can be said for most every other media outlet in the word. So I just choose BBCnews because I just do? gotta start somewhere , right? Plus, it seems to have one of the widest information networks of any other media outlet. I guess its up to people in general to read a wide variety of sources and extrapolate the information and find a sort of truth average.

But it does seem like the world is going crazy right now. But this has all happened before in one way or another, the only difference is that it is current and when things are current, we tend to think they are the biggest news to hit humanity in millennia. People in general tend to have a very short memory span. So, in answer to the sub questions of "where to start, where will it end?" Can't really stop the more entrenched attributes of human nature with a single solution. Well.. I suppose if the earth were cracked in two from a nuclear bomb, that would be a sort of single solution. LOL! Which would be a shame, and if anybody has any ideas about cracking open the earth with a nuclear warhead? don't do it. I luvs the T-bone and cracking the earth open would put a damper in that.

But I don't think what is happening in Pakistan is beyond belief. In fact, it was only a matter of time before things reached the level it is at now. In a way, its been a long time coming. Personally, I have always been amazed at the level of interest Pakistan has had in maintaining the integrity of national sovereignty, but oh well. Economy wise, we don't need to wait for the economy to rush back into the headlines, it's already there. In truth, the minute you start hearing less about the economy, you know it is getting really bad.
 
salima
 
Reply Sun 21 Jun, 2009 10:12 am
@VideCorSpoon,
i also think news and media in general is biased, which is why i quit reading newspapers early in my life. then when i first went on the internet, about 10 years ago, i started reading overseas news and then felt obliged i had to read american news and europe as well. if you read them all you get a sort of balance even if it is a balance of lies and propaganda. actually it's hilarious sometimes comparing the slant on the same story. you can also get another perspective from forums-i remember being on an afghan forum when the bombs first started-so for man on the street opinions we could also look for some iranian messageboards and blogs.

all my indian newspapersites are being blocked by mcafee at the moment and the others i had bookmarked take so long to load i dont want to go there right now. i wish i had something useful to add here, but not yet at this time.

oops, i havent looked at the dow in a few days-did anything happen? bombay sensex is doing ok. unstable and volatile but in general upwards.
 
Aedes
 
Reply Sun 21 Jun, 2009 10:51 am
@VideCorSpoon,
I find The Economist to be a very reliable and unapologetic source of news. This past Friday's issue points out two notable things:

1) This is not a revolution, at least not right now. There is very little emphasis in the protests on overturning the government.

2) Iran is a democracy of sorts, with a true democratic arm (the presidency and Parliament), and an independent theocratic arm (the "guardian council" of the judiciary and the supreme leader). But the problem has been that the supreme leader has contaminated this separation with his support for Ahmadinejad, which has undermined the legitimacy of the entire system. THIS, and not just the farce of the election, is what may destabilize the entire government.
 
xris
 
Reply Sun 21 Jun, 2009 01:30 pm
@Aedes,
It in my opinion it does not represent democracy in any sense of the word.Only muslims can stand for government and even those are selected by the clerics.When a president is elected, it is a tool of the clerics.Power is well and truly held by the clerics, the process is a charade of respectability enforced by any means, propaganda intimidation or force.
To see how their minds work just look at their record on human rights and the abuse of sharia law.Where else in the world can you see public hangings from industrial cranes or adulterers stoned to death.Their laws permits nine year old children in principle to capital punishment, can you then ever think of them as a progressive moderate open government.
The reality is that the majority would like secular law but have no power to seek its implementation.Many would die if this uprising became more than peaceful protest, have they the courage for revolt? who knows.
 
salima
 
Reply Sun 21 Jun, 2009 05:10 pm
@xris,
xris;70871 wrote:
It in my opinion it does not represent democracy in any sense of the word.Only muslims can stand for government and even those are selected by the clerics.When a president is elected, it is a tool of the clerics.Power is well and truly held by the clerics, the process is a charade of respectability enforced by any means, propaganda intimidation or force.
To see how their minds work just look at their record on human rights and the abuse of sharia law.Where else in the world can you see public hangings from industrial cranes or adulterers stoned to death.Their laws permits nine year old children in principle to capital punishment, can you then ever think of them as a progressive moderate open government.
The reality is that the majority would like secular law but have no power to seek its implementation.Many would die if this uprising became more than peaceful protest, have they the courage for revolt? who knows.


where did you get the information that the majority of the iranian people wants secular law?
 
Didymos Thomas
 
Reply Sun 21 Jun, 2009 05:30 pm
@salima,
Hard numbers are impossible to produce, however, we can look at the current student movement and the history of Iranian politics to make an educated guess. The student movement is large and popular, Iranian politics have grown increasingly progressive over the past several years (opening up public office to women, for example) and there already exists a long history of precedent for democratic, and even secular, government in Iran.

Iranian Constitutional Revolution - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The US Operation Ajax ended democracy in Iran.
 
salima
 
Reply Sun 21 Jun, 2009 06:19 pm
@VideCorSpoon,
here are some links to iranian news sources:
albawaba.com middle east news information
Tehran Times Daily NewsPaper
Worldpress.org - World Press Wire

of course we are at a disadvantage because the medium has to be english.

here is a directory of blogs written by iranians both inside the country and across the world: Iranians' blogs

i will try and get into some blogs and post links to what sound like good ones. at this time i dont have enough information to make any sensible comments.
 
Aedes
 
Reply Sun 21 Jun, 2009 08:15 pm
@xris,
xris;70871 wrote:
It in my opinion it does not represent democracy in any sense of the word.
While it's indeed ultimately a theocracy, I think your judgement is a bit extreme. Most legislative and political activities of the government are performed by elected officials, and I haven't heard much evidence of a chronic cronyism in their parliamentary election process. Remember that in the early years of the US racial minorities and women couldn't even vote let alone hold office. In Iran even if the candidates are restricted suffrage is not.

I do not agree that we can say with confidence that the majority "want secular law". I do agree that the majority want a liberal society, though, with the freedoms enjoyed by most liberal democracies.
 
salima
 
Reply Mon 22 Jun, 2009 01:19 am
@VideCorSpoon,
most of the blogs i looked at were really old and no use, but i came up with a pretty good one: View from Iran
this is written by an iranian man and his american jewish wife tori.

i tried like heck to find both points of view, but as far as i could see in blogs there are no supporters of the current regime in iran. you would think that they would want to speak out if there were any and that they would be able to much easier than those who disagree...wouldnt you? maybe the government's view is more written in newspapers...but i trust blogs more than newspapers.
it is a simple matter of evaluating whether or not the writer is educated and intelligent, and i think it wont be hard to see that they are all telling the truth as they see it and not making up stories.
every group of people (such as those who blog) has its proportion of jerks, geniuses, and everything in between...from pathological liars, complainers, preachers, thinkers and honest observers. but they are fairly easy to recognize.

---------- Post added at 12:52 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:49 PM ----------

just found this and had to add it-really great!
Michael J. Totten
 
xris
 
Reply Mon 22 Jun, 2009 03:02 am
@Aedes,
Aedes;70940 wrote:
While it's indeed ultimately a theocracy, I think your judgement is a bit extreme. Most legislative and political activities of the government are performed by elected officials, and I haven't heard much evidence of a chronic cronyism in their parliamentary election process. Remember that in the early years of the US racial minorities and women couldn't even vote let alone hold office. In Iran even if the candidates are restricted suffrage is not.

I do not agree that we can say with confidence that the majority "want secular law". I do agree that the majority want a liberal society, though, with the freedoms enjoyed by most liberal democracies.
They are only elected after they have been selected for election by clerics.Any who openly condemn the system never get the opportunity and we have seen many who opposed the system imprisoned.
If you see this amount of open dissent can you imagine the real feelings of those who see the clerics as an opposition to democracy.Read the comments of those who have fled or those who have the opportunity to indulge in forums.Remember the minorities have no say in politics and they do represent a sizable amount of the population.
The young are demanding change and a more open society, given the students are tomorrows potential for change the system will inevitable be secular.Turkey is their example, with this wind of change and system that is uncomprimising it is only a matter of time before open revolt.
 
Khethil
 
Reply Mon 22 Jun, 2009 06:51 am
@VideCorSpoon,
I saw a video clip out of Iran this morning that was quite disturbing and moving. If this doesn't wretch your heart for what's going on, nothing will
(Warning: Graphic Content - Link)
 
 

 
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